A Disaster Waiting to Happen
نویسنده
چکیده
Suppose we organise a golf tournament in which 100 people play a round. Is the score of the tournament winner a reasonable estimate of his future scores? If the field consists of players of similar abilities, then the winner is likely to be one of the better players, but he will also have to be lucky on the day. The winner's score is likely to be above his personal average, for if he had not been lucky, he would not have won. This is selection bias. We have selected a player based on how good his score is, so his score is a biased estimate of his typical scores.
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تاریخ انتشار 2002